According to the forecast by Verband Fenster + Fassade (VFF), the German window market will decrease by 1.2% in 2025. However, growth of 2.8% is expected in 2026, reaching over 13 million installed window units. A similar trend can be seen in the entrance door market: after a slight decline of 0.2% in 2025, growth of 2.6% is anticipated in 2026.
The forecast takes into account the current situation in the construction and financial markets – a stable interest rate policy, declining inflation, and challenging conditions in regulation and state support. Despite uncertainty regarding investments in heating systems, residential construction, particularly private housing, is recovering faster than expected. In contrast, the non-residential sector remains weak due to investor caution.
In German residential construction, renovation volumes are projected to increase by 1.2% in 2025 and by 1.6% in 2026. Meanwhile, new construction is expected to fall by 5.9% in 2025 but rebound by 5.7% the following year. The main growth driver will be the residential sector (+7.7%), while the non-residential segment will remain under pressure.
VFF Managing Director Frank Lange noted that the market is sending mixed signals but shows a clear outlook: “Residential construction has stabilised and is providing positive momentum for 2026. However, the pace of renovation remains insufficient to achieve climate targets. Reliable conditions and support programmes are essential to stimulate investment.”
The German door market also demonstrates an interesting trend: in 2026, around 62.5% of models will feature enhanced security. In the residential sector, this share exceeds 70%, while in the non-residential sector it is only around 40%.
Plastic structures maintain their leading position — over 50% of the window and door market, according to Heinze GmbH research. Sven Weihe, head of pro-K, stated that plastic remains an important material for improving energy efficiency and reducing emissions.
Earlier, VFF noted that the German window market would show the first signs of recovery in 2025.