Germany anticipates cautious growth in the window and door market in 2025. This is stated in the updated forecast presented by researcher Jörg Flasdiek (Heinze Marktforschung GmbH) at an industry conference in Frankfurt. The forecast was commissioned by the German associations VFF, BF, pro-K, and FVSB.
In 2024, the German window market recorded a decline of 8.7% to 12.90 million window units (WU = 1.3 x 1.3 m). For 2025, a slight recovery is forecast, with the window market expected to grow by 0.3% to 12.94 million WU. This contrasts with the previous forecast, which anticipated a decrease in the overall market volume for 2025.
Analysts note a revival in the modernisation segment, with expected window sales growth in renovation projects revised upward to +3.5% (previously +1.2%).
However, new residential construction remains weak. In 2025, new builds are forecast to decline by a further 5.5%. Over the past three years, this segment has collapsed by 52.9%. Market participants hope that initiatives promised by the new government — a “construction turbo mode”, the reinstatement of the temporary EH55 subsidy, and tax incentives for building modernisation — will take full effect in 2026.
Overall, the window market is stabilising. In the residential segment for 2025, forecasts indicate +3.3% for renovations and -5.5% for new builds. Commercial construction shows a similar trend: -7.8% in new builds and +3.9% in modernisation.
According to Frank Lange, Managing Director of VFF, “the growth of the window market in 2025 is a first encouraging sign. New political conditions could trigger positive change. What’s important now is to create predictable planning conditions and accelerate the pace of modernisation.”
The external door market, which declined by 8.1% in 2024 to 1.136 million units, is expected to grow by 1.0% to 1.148 million units in 2025.
Modernisation is forecast to rise by 3.0%, while new builds are expected to fall by 6.2%. In total, 911,000 doors are expected to be installed in building renovation projects in 2025 (+3.1%).
At the same time, demand for enhanced security is increasing: 62.4% of entrance doors are equipped with reinforced security features. The Fachverband Schloss- und Beschlagindustrie believes that high-quality security could become another market driver — provided it receives political support.
Despite signs of stabilisation, the glass industry has not yet recovered from the 2024 downturn. Deliveries of float glass, toughened glass (ESG), laminated glass (VSG), and insulating glass have fallen by more than 9%. Due to prolonged production cuts, there is now a shortage of glass. Window manufacturers are already experiencing longer delivery times for insulating glass.
Germany’s window market retains growth potential in 2025 thanks to an active modernisation segment, political support, and demand for energy-efficient and secure windows and doors. However, full recovery depends on the speed of implementation of new government programmes.
Illustration photo: Anatol Rurac on Unsplash
A slight recovery of +0.3% to 12.94 million window units is forecast for the German window market in 2025, following an 8.7% decline to 12.90 million units in 2024. The external door market, which shrank by 8.1% to 1.136 million units in 2024, is expected to grow by 1% to 1.148 million units in 2025.
German window market shows first signs of recovery in 2025
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